2. Exploring major project data

We surveyed 13 entities to get information on how 102 major projects (with a TEI of $100 million or more) are performing against their expected cost, timeframes and scope. 

This includes 11 new projects, 82 existing projects and 9 completed projects that are collectively worth $99.8 billion. 

This chapter explores changes to these projects' cost, time and scope to date.

We collected information on each project’s key documents, such as business cases and benefits management plans.

Adequacy of business cases for 2 major road projects

Conclusion

Overall, the business cases for the Mickleham Road Upgrade—Stage 1 (MRU1) and the Barwon Heads Road Upgrade (BHRU) projects were substantively compliant with DTF’s ILHVHR guidance requirements. 

However, both business cases provided a limited range of project options for the government’s consideration, and for the BHRU, the business case was not timely enough to inform the government’s funding commitments on the project.

Adequacy of Melbourne Airport Rail business case

Conclusion

The MAR business case DoT and RPV completed in late 2021 did not fully meet DTF’s guidance requirements and was too late to inform key government decisions on the project.

DTF has provided substantial advice to the government on the MAR project since 2017. However, it is yet to complete the deliverability assessment of the business case required under its HVHR major project assurance framework to give the government confidence in its deliverability. This assessment has not been finalised despite the project having started.

Adequacy of Suburban Rail Loop business case

Conclusion

The business case DoT and SRLA provided to the government for the SRL program did not support informed investment decisions. The business case only analysed part of the program and did not fully meet DTF’s guidance requirements. 

DTF has provided substantial advice to the government on the SRL program since 2019. However, it is yet to complete the assessment of the business case required under its HVHR project assurance framework to give the government confidence in its deliverability. 

Audit context

Victoria’s population growth has prompted a significant increase in government investment in infrastructure. Capital investments of nearly $129 billion in transport represent around 70 per cent of the state’s capital program in the 2022–23 Budget.